OUTCOME: HUGE
Let people rent an air mattress on a stranger's living room floor when hotels sell out for a conference.
LIVE PATH
Became Airbnb. Millions of listings, a public company worth tens of billions.
READ THE VERDICTPut your idea on trial: moat finding for foundersPUT?YOUR IDEAON TRIAL
Description, document, link, or voice note in.The playground, the frame, the edge, and the clone defense out.
THE CEILING. MOONSHOT
YOU
THE MOAT
THE CLONES, ARRIVING DAILY
INPUT: ANY FORMOUTPUT: ONE STAMP
LIVE PATHREFRAMETHINDEAD
60 SECONDS. NO ACCOUNT. COMPRESSED MOAT ANALYSIS.
THE QUICK TRIAL
TRIAL
How much time you can give, cash you can spend,
and where this should end.
(01)
HOW IT WORKS
01 GROUND
map the field, test the why now
02 CLAIM
strip to the irreducible claim
03 CLONE
what a 48 hour copier reproduces
04 FRAMES
rival frames against the 7 powers
05 EDGE
assets that accumulate, and when
06 TRIBUNAL
three risks, each with a counter
07 FUTURES
four worlds, two swing uncertainties
08 VERDICT
five axes, then the stamp
(02)
WHAT YOU GET
(01)
THE PLAYGROUND
The field, who is already there, what the incumbents give away free, and the gaps that are structurally open.
(02)
THE FRAME
One brutal sentence. The layer, the people, the mechanism that compounds.
(03)
THE EDGE
Each edge as a mechanism, with a time constant in months and the metric that proves it is still alive.
(04)
THE FUNCTION MAP
Three columns. Build now. Keep. Stop. No roadmap theatre.
(05)
THE CLONE DEFENSE
Concede, depreciate, detect. Plus tripwires that tell you when the moat is dead.
months of head start
14
odds, honest
3%
refuters, adversarial
03
(03)
THE POINT
the unclonable
adjective
Value that accumulates from use and cannot be photographed.
(04)
REALITY CHECK
48H
How long a legacy moat lasts now.
BUILT FAST
AI builds in days what took years.
COPIED FASTER
Code, screens, playbook: cloned in a weekend.
TURNED AROUND
TRIAL points that same speed at your idea first, and finds the version that stays hard to copy while you build and scale.
Speed is the structure now.Cloning cannot be prevented, only made irrelevant.TRIAL puts you on the leverage side.
(05)
THE PROOF
REAL IDEAS. RUN UNEDITED.
OUTCOME: HUGE
Seven lines of code so a developer can take payments online, instead of a two week bank merchant account setup.
REFRAME
Became Stripe. Private, valued in the tens of billions, payments infrastructure for much of the web.
READ THE VERDICTOUTCOME: DEAD
Big budget Hollywood shows cut into ten minute chapters, made for watching on your phone in short breaks.
OUTCOME: DEAD
A wifi connected press that squeezes proprietary juice packs you buy on subscription.
THIN
Became Juicero. About 120 million raised, folded after people squeezed the packs by hand.
READ THE VERDICTWe did not predict these. We ran them cold and published whatever came back, including where the machine and history disagree. That disagreement is the point.
(06)
PRICING
FIRST TRIAL
0 EUR
One free credit on every new account. Full pipeline, full report, no card.
ONE CREDIT
49 EUR
One trial, one verdict report. No subscription. Credits never expire.
THREE CREDITS
119 EUR
Three trials. Credits never expire. No subscription. Credits never expire.
NO SUBSCRIPTIONCREDITS NEVER EXPIRE
(07)
QUESTIONS
- What is a moat?
- A mechanism that makes copying you pointless instead of impossible. Screens can be copied in a weekend. A routing model trained on two years of your customers' corrections cannot. If the advantage does not grow while people use the product, it is a feature with good PR.
- How does TRIAL find one?
- Eight sequential stages. It maps the field and tests the why now, restates the idea in one brutal sentence, runs a clone test on what a competent team reproduces in 48 hours, tests three rival frames against Helmer's 7 Powers, names the assets that accumulate from use, turns three attacks into risks with counters, builds four futures, then scores five axes and stamps. Each claim carries a confidence tag: solid, likely, thin, or guess.
- What does a verdict contain?
- Five axes scored separately, then the sections: the playground, the frame, the edge, the futures, the risk ledger, the function map, the clone defense. Plus a north star annex calibrated to your exit target and a 90 day ignition plan sized against your real hours and cash. The stamp is one of four words: LIVE PATH, REFRAME, THIN, DEAD. It names the path, not your fate.
- Why credits and not a subscription?
- You do not need a moat report every month. You need one when the idea changes. A subscription would push us to invent reasons to keep you clicking, so we sell single trials. First one is free, credits never expire.